Goal totals and BTTS: reading Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 statistics
Over 2.5 goals means at least three goals in the match. BTTS means both teams score at least once. An observed frequency summarises past results; on its own, it is not a next-match probability.
Unambiguous thresholds
Over 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 / 4.5 goals means at least 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 total goals. Half-goal thresholds cannot be matched exactly by a final goal total. For a given threshold, the model’s over and under probabilities sum to 100%, subject to numerical precision. Displayed values may differ slightly because of rounding.
BTTS and totals answer different questions
A 1–1 score satisfies BTTS but not over 2.5 goals. A 3–0 score satisfies over 2.5 but not BTTS. A 0–0 counts as both a clean sheet and a failure to score for each club. The Lab therefore keeps these measures separate. Goal-total distributions add information beyond averages: two clubs can have the same mean and very different distributions.
Read 4/7 before reading 57%
A 57% frequency may describe only four matches out of seven. A home or away filter reduces the sample further. The table retains numerator and denominator, and the colour matrix shows N. Compare identical definitions and scopes: an all-venue season frequency is not directly comparable with a frequency based on three away matches.
Comparing with a projection
The next-match scenario table comes from the Poisson model and the opponent. The pattern table comes from observed scores. Neither replaces the other. Markets remain correlated: BTTS, over 2.5 goals and individual scorelines are not independent events.
Are BTTS frequencies predictions?
No. They describe the share of observed matches in which both teams scored. Next-match probabilities are computed separately by the model and depend on the opponent.
Where do Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 statistics come from?
Current results use Wikipedia score matrices reconciled with standings. Dated fixtures and squads have separate source revisions. Historical results come from OpenFootball. Source links and licences are retained.
Are the displayed odds bookmaker quotes?
No. Theoretical odds equal 1 divided by model probability, without margin. The comparison tool receives only the odds you enter; no bookmaker feed is connected.
Why do tables show N or 4/7?
A percentage alone hides sample size. N is the number of matches, and 4/7 means four occurrences in seven games. Missing values are not replaced with zeros.
How are the latest five results selected?
By verified date, after matching the fixture and score against the matrix. With partial dated coverage, these are the latest five available results, not necessarily the latest five matches played.
Can I read the data in French?
Yes. Every page and guide has a French and English version, connected by the language switch. Exports use stable identifiers shared across both languages.