Pau FC — AS Saint-Étienne
11 December 2026
Provisional date; scheduling to be confirmed.
The match, through data.
The first published calculation will be preserved before kick-off. No retrospective forecast will be fabricated.
86 league matches · 10/9 matches per team · limited sample.
The score distribution
Each cell = a probability in %. Scores beyond 5 goals: 0.6%.
Total goals, scenario by scenario
Model distribution of total goals.
The most likely scorelines
A probability, never a promised result.
These eight scorelines cover only part of the distribution.
Outcomes, totals and theoretical odds
| Scenario | Model probability | Theoretical no-margin odds | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Home win | 33.2% | 3.01 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X · Draw | 25.7% | 3.90 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 2 · Away win | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 1X · Home or draw | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 12 · Either team wins | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X2 · Draw or away | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · No | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93.3% | 1.07 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6.7% | 14.97 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 4.04 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 3.48 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13.8% | 7.25 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 4.5 goals | 86.2% | 1.16 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
Odds are computed from the model, without margin or commission. These markets are correlated: their probabilities must not be multiplied as if independent.
From odds to probability.
Enter three decimal 1X2 odds to compare their implied probabilities with the model. Fields start empty: no odds feed is connected.
Values must exceed 1. Margin is removed proportionally, one of several possible methods. A difference from the model does not establish profitability.
Your comparison will appear here.
Documented head-to-head results
Available 2022/23–2025/26 archives and dated 2026/27 results. Ligue 2 2025/26 is partial: meetings are not exhaustive.
| Date | Season | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | +2.5 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 October 2025 | 2025/26 | AS Saint-Étienne | 6–0 | Pau FC | — | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 23 January 2024 | 2023/24 | Pau FC | 0–1 | AS Saint-Étienne | — | — | Source ↗ |
| 25 November 2023 | 2023/24 | AS Saint-Étienne | 1–2 | Pau FC | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 25 February 2023 | 2022/23 | AS Saint-Étienne | 2–0 | Pau FC | — | — | Source ↗ |
| 5 September 2022 | 2022/23 | Pau FC | 2–2 | AS Saint-Étienne | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
Behind the probabilities.
Results through 23 October 2026 · 86 league matches in the snapshot. This context can change until the first archived publication.
Pau FC recorded 10 points in 6 matches at home. AS Saint-Étienne recorded 10 points in 5 matches away.
At least three goals: 2/6 matches for Pau FC, 4/5 for AS Saint-Étienne. These are observed frequencies; model probabilities are presented separately above.
How the points were won
Share of wins, draws and losses in each selection.
Goals, but how many?
Total goals scored by both teams. Both clubs share a 0–100% scale.
Hover, tap or focus a bar to read its detail. One match can change a small sample substantially.
Scroll the table horizontally to compare both clubs.
| Measure | Pau FCat home · N=6 | AS Saint-Étienneaway · N=5 | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Observed matches | 6 | 5 | N in the selected scope |
| Wins / draws / losses | 3 / 1 / 2 | 3 / 1 / 1 | Results from the club’s perspective |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 | 3 points per win, 1 per draw |
| Goals scored / match | 1.33 | 2.00 | Club goals divided by N |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.00 | 1.20 | Opponent goals divided by N |
| Total goals / match | 2.33 | 3.20 | Both teams’ goals divided by N |
| At least 2 goals | 4 / 6 · 67% | 4 / 5 · 80% | Over 1.5 |
| At least 3 goals | 2 / 6 · 33% | 4 / 5 · 80% | Over 2.5 |
| At least 4 goals | 1 / 6 · 17% | 2 / 5 · 40% | Over 3.5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 / 6 · 50% | 3 / 5 · 60% | BTTS |
| Clean sheets | 1 / 6 · 17% | 2 / 5 · 40% | The opponent scored zero |
| Failed to score | 2 / 6 · 33% | 0 / 5 · 0% | The club scored zero |
Sources and updates
Standings: matches included through 23 October 2026 · Wikipedia ↗
Schedule and statistics retrieved 24 October 2026. Dates without a kick-off time are provisional. Conflicting source dates are excluded from the schedule.
- Official cross-check ↗ · Full standings
- Official cross-check ↗ · Season club membership and opening rounds
Sourced community data with no live coverage guarantee. Tables are checked hourly, details every 6 hours and squads daily, on visits and during automatic updates.