Stade Brestois — Paris FC
27 November 2026 · 20:45 · Europe/Paris
The matchday essentials
Where to watch
Ligue 1Every league match.
Rights reviewed 27 October 2026 · Announcement dated 25 July 2026Country means where you are watching, regardless of language. Season rights do not confirm the exact channel or kick-off for a particular game.
Go to the game
Venue for this fixture: Stade Francis-Le Blé
Check the home club’s ticket siteThe link opens the club’s ticket service; it does not confirm that this match is on sale or has seats available.
Travelling with the away team?
Check your club’s announcements for away-section tickets, travel arrangements and any restrictions.
Paris FCWhat the numbers say
The fixture
Stade Brestois – Paris FC · 27 November 2026 · 20:45 Europe/Paris.
Schedule changes follow the available sources.The home / away comparison
Stade Brestois: 1.00 points per home game (4 games). Paris FC: 1.00 away (4 games).
Results through 25 October 2026 · small samples, different opponents.The model’s outlook
The leading outcome is Stade Brestois at 45.3%. It remains below 50%: the other outcomes together carry more weight.
Projection preserved 29 October 2026 · without injury or line-up inputs.The match, through data.
Published 30/10/2026, 00:03:02 · Europe/Paris
This first projection stays unchanged after the match, even as the data evolves.
hexagone-poisson-history-v2 · Stade Brestois / Paris FC · JSON archive and input data72 league matches · 8/8 matches per team · limited sample.
+ 610 historical matches · decaying weights · 365-day half-life
The score distribution
Values in %. Dashed diagonal: draws. Scores beyond 5 goals: 0.6%.
Total goals, scenario by scenario
Model probabilities. The final bar groups higher totals.
The most likely scorelines
A probability, never a promised result.
These eight scorelines cover only part of the distribution.
Outcomes, totals and theoretical odds
| Scenario | Model probability | Theoretical no-margin odds | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Home win | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 2 · Away win | 29.1% | 3.44 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 1X · Home or draw | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 12 · Either team wins | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X2 · Draw or away | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · No | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93.0% | 1.08 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.0% | 14.23 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 3.89 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13.0% | 7.66 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
Odds are computed from the model, without margin or commission. These markets are correlated: their probabilities must not be multiplied as if independent.
From odds to probability.
Enter three decimal 1X2 odds to compare their implied probabilities with the model. Fields start empty: no odds feed is connected.
Values must exceed 1. Margin is removed proportionally, one of several possible methods. A difference from the model does not establish profitability.
Your comparison will appear here.
Documented head-to-head results
Available 2022/23–2025/26 archives and dated 2026/27 results. Ligue 2 2025/26 is partial: meetings are not exhaustive.
| Date | Season | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | +2.5 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | 2025/26 | Paris FC | 4–0 | Stade Brestois | — | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 14 September 2025 | 2025/26 | Stade Brestois | 1–2 | Paris FC | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
Behind the probabilities.
Results through 25 October 2026 · 72 league matches in the snapshot. These observations come from the inputs used for the first published forecast. They stay unchanged after the match.
Stade Brestois recorded 4 points in 4 matches at home. Paris FC recorded 4 points in 4 matches away.
At least three goals: 3/4 matches for Stade Brestois, 2/4 for Paris FC. These are observed frequencies; model probabilities are presented separately above.
How the points were won
Share of wins, draws and losses in each selection.
Goals, but how many?
Total goals scored by both teams. Both clubs share a 0–100% scale.
Hover, tap or focus a bar to read its detail. One match can change a small sample substantially.
Scroll the table horizontally to compare both clubs.
| Measure | Stade Brestoisat home · N=4 | Paris FCaway · N=4 | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Observed matches | 4 | 4 | N in the selected scope |
| Wins / draws / losses | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 | Results from the club’s perspective |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3 points per win, 1 per draw |
| Goals scored / match | 2.00 | 1.00 | Club goals divided by N |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.50 | 1.25 | Opponent goals divided by N |
| Total goals / match | 3.50 | 2.25 | Both teams’ goals divided by N |
| At least 2 goals | 3 / 4 · 75% | 2 / 4 · 50% | Over 1.5 |
| At least 3 goals | 3 / 4 · 75% | 2 / 4 · 50% | Over 2.5 |
| At least 4 goals | 2 / 4 · 50% | 1 / 4 · 25% | Over 3.5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 / 4 · 75% | 2 / 4 · 50% | BTTS |
| Clean sheets | 0 / 4 · 0% | 1 / 4 · 25% | The opponent scored zero |
| Failed to score | 1 / 4 · 25% | 2 / 4 · 50% | The club scored zero |
Sources and updates
Standings: matches included through 25 October 2026 · Wikipedia ↗
Schedule and statistics retrieved 30 October 2026. Dates without a kick-off time are provisional. Conflicting source dates are excluded from the schedule.
- Official cross-check ↗ · Full standings
- Official cross-check ↗ · Matchday 7 spot checks
- Official cross-check ↗ · Rennes–PSG home/away inversion
Sourced community data with no live coverage guarantee. Tables are checked hourly, details hourly and squads daily, on visits and during automatic updates.