Paris Saint-Germain — FC Lorient
28 November 2026 · 20:45 · Europe/Paris
The matchday essentials
Where to watch
Ligue 1Every league match.
Rights reviewed 27 October 2026 · Announcement dated 25 July 2026Country means where you are watching, regardless of language. Season rights do not confirm the exact channel or kick-off for a particular game.
Go to the game
Venue for this fixture: Parc des Princes
Check the home club’s ticket siteThe link opens the club’s ticket service; it does not confirm that this match is on sale or has seats available.
Guide to the club’s usual ground →Travelling with the away team?
Check your club’s announcements for away-section tickets, travel arrangements and any restrictions.
FC LorientWhat the numbers say
The fixture
Paris Saint-Germain – FC Lorient · 28 November 2026 · 20:45 Europe/Paris.
Schedule changes follow the available sources.The home / away comparison
Paris Saint-Germain: 2.00 points per home game (3 games). FC Lorient: 1.25 away (4 games).
Results through 25 October 2026 · small samples, different opponents.The model’s outlook
No archived projection is available. The probability section explains model eligibility; missing scores are never invented.
The match, through data.
The first published calculation will be preserved before kick-off. No retrospective forecast will be fabricated.
72 league matches · 8/8 matches per team · limited sample.
+ 610 historical matches · decaying weights · 365-day half-life
The score distribution
Values in %. Dashed diagonal: draws. Scores beyond 5 goals: 0.3%.
Total goals, scenario by scenario
Model probabilities. The final bar groups higher totals.
The most likely scorelines
A probability, never a promised result.
These eight scorelines cover only part of the distribution.
Outcomes, totals and theoretical odds
| Scenario | Model probability | Theoretical no-margin odds | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Home win | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X · Draw | 27.8% | 3.59 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 2 · Away win | 17.7% | 5.65 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 1X · Home or draw | 82.3% | 1.22 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 12 · Either team wins | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X2 · Draw or away | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · Yes | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · No | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 0.5 goals | 86.9% | 1.15 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 0.5 goals | 13.1% | 7.66 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 2.52 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 3.00 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 6.69 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 3.5 goals | 85.1% | 1.18 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 4.5 goals | 5.6% | 17.88 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 4.5 goals | 94.4% | 1.06 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
Odds are computed from the model, without margin or commission. These markets are correlated: their probabilities must not be multiplied as if independent.
From odds to probability.
Enter three decimal 1X2 odds to compare their implied probabilities with the model. Fields start empty: no odds feed is connected.
Values must exceed 1. Margin is removed proportionally, one of several possible methods. A difference from the model does not establish profitability.
Your comparison will appear here.
Documented head-to-head results
Available 2022/23–2025/26 archives and dated 2026/27 results. Ligue 2 2025/26 is partial: meetings are not exhaustive.
| Date | Season | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | +2.5 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | 2–2 | FC Lorient | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 29 October 2025 | 2025/26 | FC Lorient | 1–1 | Paris Saint-Germain | ✓ | — | Source ↗ |
| 24 April 2024 | 2023/24 | FC Lorient | 1–4 | Paris Saint-Germain | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 12 August 2023 | 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | 0–0 | FC Lorient | — | — | Source ↗ |
| 30 April 2023 | 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1–3 | FC Lorient | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 6 November 2022 | 2022/23 | FC Lorient | 1–2 | Paris Saint-Germain | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
Behind the probabilities.
Results through 25 October 2026 · 72 league matches in the snapshot. This context can change until the first archived publication.
Paris Saint-Germain recorded 6 points in 3 matches at home. FC Lorient recorded 5 points in 4 matches away.
At least three goals: 2/3 matches for Paris Saint-Germain, 1/4 for FC Lorient. These are observed frequencies; model probabilities are presented separately above.
How the points were won
Share of wins, draws and losses in each selection.
Goals, but how many?
Total goals scored by both teams. Both clubs share a 0–100% scale.
Hover, tap or focus a bar to read its detail. One match can change a small sample substantially.
Scroll the table horizontally to compare both clubs.
| Measure | Paris Saint-Germainat home · N=3 | FC Lorientaway · N=4 | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Observed matches | 3 | 4 | N in the selected scope |
| Wins / draws / losses | 2 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 1 | Results from the club’s perspective |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.25 | 3 points per win, 1 per draw |
| Goals scored / match | 2.00 | 0.50 | Club goals divided by N |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.00 | 0.50 | Opponent goals divided by N |
| Total goals / match | 3.00 | 1.00 | Both teams’ goals divided by N |
| At least 2 goals | 3 / 3 · 100% | 1 / 4 · 25% | Over 1.5 |
| At least 3 goals | 2 / 3 · 67% | 1 / 4 · 25% | Over 2.5 |
| At least 4 goals | 1 / 3 · 33% | 0 / 4 · 0% | Over 3.5 |
| Both teams scored | 2 / 3 · 67% | 1 / 4 · 25% | BTTS |
| Clean sheets | 1 / 3 · 33% | 3 / 4 · 75% | The opponent scored zero |
| Failed to score | 0 / 3 · 0% | 2 / 4 · 50% | The club scored zero |
Dated source · WikipediaOfficial match report ↗
Sources and updates
Standings: matches included through 25 October 2026 · Wikipedia ↗
Schedule and statistics retrieved 27 October 2026. Dates without a kick-off time are provisional. Conflicting source dates are excluded from the schedule.
- Official cross-check ↗ · Full standings
- Official cross-check ↗ · Matchday 7 spot checks
- Official cross-check ↗ · Rennes–PSG home/away inversion
Sourced community data with no live coverage guarantee. Tables are checked hourly, details hourly and squads daily, on visits and during automatic updates.