Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse FC
1 November 2026 · 20:45 · Europe/Paris
The match, through data.
Published 23/10/2026, 16:33:51 · Europe/Paris
This first projection stays unchanged after the match, even as the data evolves.
hexagone-poisson-history-v2 · Olympique de Marseille / Toulouse FC · JSON archive and input data63 league matches · 7/7 matches per team · limited sample.
+ 610 historical matches · decaying weights · 365-day half-life
The score distribution
Each cell = a probability in %. Scores beyond 5 goals: 2.5%.
Total goals, scenario by scenario
Model distribution of total goals.
The most likely scorelines
A probability, never a promised result.
These eight scorelines cover only part of the distribution.
Outcomes, totals and theoretical odds
| Scenario | Model probability | Theoretical no-margin odds | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Home win | 43.5% | 2.30 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 2 · Away win | 35.2% | 2.84 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 1X · Home or draw | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| 12 · Either team wins | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| X2 · Draw or away | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| BTTS · No | 28.6% | 3.50 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97.6% | 1.02 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 0.5 goals | 2.4% | 42.26 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.8% | 1.13 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.2% | 8.91 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.8% | 3.60 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 3.5 goals | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Over 4.5 goals | 32.1% | 3.11 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
| Under 4.5 goals | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1 ÷ probability. No bookmaker quote. |
Odds are computed from the model, without margin or commission. These markets are correlated: their probabilities must not be multiplied as if independent.
From odds to probability.
Enter three decimal 1X2 odds to compare their implied probabilities with the model. Fields start empty: no odds feed is connected.
Values must exceed 1. Margin is removed proportionally, one of several possible methods. A difference from the model does not establish profitability.
Your comparison will appear here.
Documented head-to-head results
Available 2022/23–2025/26 archives and dated 2026/27 results. Ligue 2 2025/26 is partial: meetings are not exhaustive.
| Date | Season | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | +2.5 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 March 2026 | 2025/26 | Toulouse FC | 0–1 | Olympique de Marseille | — | — | Source ↗ |
| 29 November 2025 | 2025/26 | Olympique de Marseille | 2–2 | Toulouse FC | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 6 April 2025 | 2024/25 | Olympique de Marseille | 3–2 | Toulouse FC | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 31 August 2024 | 2024/25 | Toulouse FC | 1–3 | Olympique de Marseille | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 21 April 2024 | 2023/24 | Toulouse FC | 2–2 | Olympique de Marseille | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 17 September 2023 | 2023/24 | Olympique de Marseille | 0–0 | Toulouse FC | — | — | Source ↗ |
| 19 February 2023 | 2022/23 | Toulouse FC | 2–3 | Olympique de Marseille | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
| 29 December 2022 | 2022/23 | Olympique de Marseille | 6–1 | Toulouse FC | ✓ | ✓ | Source ↗ |
Behind the probabilities.
Results through 18 October 2026 · 63 league matches in the snapshot. These observations come from the inputs used for the first published forecast. They stay unchanged after the match.
Olympique de Marseille recorded 3 points in 3 matches at home. Toulouse FC recorded 6 points in 4 matches away.
At least three goals: 3/3 matches for Olympique de Marseille, 4/4 for Toulouse FC. These are observed frequencies; model probabilities are presented separately above.
How the points were won
Share of wins, draws and losses in each selection.
Goals, but how many?
Total goals scored by both teams. Both clubs share a 0–100% scale.
Hover, tap or focus a bar to read its detail. One match can change a small sample substantially.
Scroll the table horizontally to compare both clubs.
| Measure | Olympique de Marseilleat home · N=3 | Toulouse FCaway · N=4 | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Observed matches | 3 | 4 | N in the selected scope |
| Wins / draws / losses | 1 / 0 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 0 | Results from the club’s perspective |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.50 | 3 points per win, 1 per draw |
| Goals scored / match | 2.33 | 2.25 | Club goals divided by N |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.67 | 1.50 | Opponent goals divided by N |
| Total goals / match | 4.00 | 3.75 | Both teams’ goals divided by N |
| At least 2 goals | 3 / 3 · 100% | 4 / 4 · 100% | Over 1.5 |
| At least 3 goals | 3 / 3 · 100% | 4 / 4 · 100% | Over 2.5 |
| At least 4 goals | 2 / 3 · 67% | 3 / 4 · 75% | Over 3.5 |
| Both teams scored | 2 / 3 · 67% | 3 / 4 · 75% | BTTS |
| Clean sheets | 1 / 3 · 33% | 1 / 4 · 25% | The opponent scored zero |
| Failed to score | 0 / 3 · 0% | 0 / 4 · 0% | The club scored zero |
Dated source · WikipediaOfficial match report ↗
Sources and updates
Standings: matches included through 23 October 2026 · Wikipedia ↗
Schedule and statistics retrieved 24 October 2026. Dates without a kick-off time are provisional. Conflicting source dates are excluded from the schedule.
- Official cross-check ↗ · Full standings
- Official cross-check ↗ · Matchday 7 spot checks
- Official cross-check ↗ · Rennes–PSG home/away inversion
Sourced community data with no live coverage guarantee. Tables are checked hourly, details every 6 hours and squads daily, on visits and during automatic updates.